EWS Dengue Mexico

Municipalities on Alert

Max. Consec. Alert Weeks

Confirmed Cases EW

MODEL METRICS

-SENS.

-PREC.

-ESPEC.

-F1

Alert Map by Epidemiological Week

Alert Surveillance No model data this week

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-Municipalities on Alert

-Consec. Weeks

-Confirmed Cases EW

EWS Dengue Mexico

Early Warning Report for Dengue

1. Executive Summary

Municipalities on Alert

Consec. Alert Weeks

Confirmed Cases EW

Predicted Cases EW

2. Alert Map

3. Endemic Channel (Risk Traffic Light and Trend)

4. Priority Municipalities on Active Alert

State	Municipality	Consec. weeks	Observed, this year to date	Observed, same period last year	Observed, previous EW	Predicted, next EW

5. Methodological Note

This report was automatically generated by SAT-Dengue Mexico. The model uses Bayesian negative binomial regression with spatial effects (BYM2) and temporal effects (RW1) implemented in R-INLA. The endemic channel is built with historical percentiles (P25, P50, P75) calculated by epidemiological week from non-epidemic years, with a minimum floor of 3 confirmed cases. When more than one municipality is selected, the channel thresholds shown are the SUM of the municipal thresholds - a reference band, not a threshold estimated at that aggregate level.

Developed by: Espinosa Badillo, Temis Silvia Johanna - Master in Tropical Medicine, 2025-2026